Daily Killings in the nation Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean figure of everyday murders each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government data. But, public safety specialists have warned that murder figures could fail to point to better national security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is extremely significant,” the President said, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it could mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.